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Red245
680082.5
293080.5
205476.6
Blue199
815964.4
331479.8
271467.4
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions259221150200300350245199

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+49Auto
+46Teleop
+46Endgame
+46Fouls
AutonomousRed +49
0Leave6
14Coral scored#3
72Coral points17
72Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +3
26Coral scored#23
95Coral points82
3Processor algae#3
6Net algae#10
18Processor points18
24Net points40
42Algae points58
137Total teleop140
Reef
16L4#7
13L3#9
8L2#5
3L1 · trough#5
49Game pieces#39
Bargelevel
36Cage & park36
36Total endgame36
Penalties & totalRed +46
0Foul points0
245Total score199

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
82.50.1
82.983.0
Auto22.5
Teleop48.5
End11.4
red by 2.7
3314
#13
79.80.3
80.179.8
Auto19.1
Teleop47.7
End13.1
Second
80.50.1
81.081.0
Auto18.5
Teleop51.5
End10.5
red by 13.1
67.40.3
67.767.4
Auto13.3
Teleop47.4
End6.7
Third
2054
#50
76.60.1
77.177.2
Auto23.4
Teleop44.5
End8.8
red by 12.3
8159
#19
64.40.3
64.764.4
Auto16.0
Teleop43.2
End5.2