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Red264
516665.4
441491.9
1690104.5
Blue242
803374.6
473874.5
260777.7
89%Model gave it11%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions282234150200250300350264242

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+28Teleop
+18Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave3
13Coral scored#11
65Coral points55
68Total auto58
TeleoperatedRed +18
28Coral scored#30
102Coral points108
5Processor algae#3
8Net algae#5
30Processor points18
32Net points20
62Algae points38
164Total teleop146
Reef
15L4#15
14L3#13
7L2#6
5L1 · trough#7
54Game pieces#49
BargeBlue +10
26Cage & park36
26Total endgame36
Penalties & totalRed +22
6Foul points2
264Total score242

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
104.50.0
103.0103.0
Auto31.3
Teleop62.1
End11.1
red by 26.8
77.70.3
77.778.0
Auto17.8
Teleop48.1
End11.9
Second
91.90.0
90.490.4
Auto19.0
Teleop65.3
End7.6
red by 17.3
8033
#43
74.60.3
74.574.8
Auto19.0
Teleop46.8
End8.7
Third
5166
#18
65.40.0
65.465.4
Auto13.6
Teleop39.2
End12.6
blue by 9.1
4738
#11
74.50.3
74.574.8
Auto18.8
Teleop48.6
End7.1