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Red110
234512.5
198655.6
182537.1
Blue70
241025.6
176918.7
176430.3
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9961020408012014016011070

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+34Teleop
+40Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave6
5Coral scored#1
27Coral points3
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +13
11Coral scored#13
38Coral points47
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#2
12Processor points6
24Net points8
36Algae points14
74Total teleop61
Reef
7L4#6
3L3#4
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#1
24Game pieces#17
BargeRed +6
6Cage & park0
6Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +40
0Foul points0
110Total score70

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.62.1
36.338.4
Auto13.7
Teleop33.8
End8.0
red by 25.3
1764
#20
30.30.6
24.425.0
Auto6.6
Teleop23.0
End0.7
Second
37.12.1
33.635.7
Auto10.0
Teleop25.6
End1.6
red by 11.5
2410
#30
25.60.6
15.916.5
Auto5.4
Teleop18.2
End2.0
Third
2345
#35
12.52.1
15.717.8
Auto2.7
Teleop9.8
End-0.0
blue by 6.2
1769
#17
18.70.6
18.018.7
Auto4.3
Teleop11.0
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsMissed33%Barge oddsMissed