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Red118
176430.3
199412.1
173057.3
Blue121
931622.2
742142.7
509824.0
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1007220406080120140160180118121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+7Teleop
Endgame+3
Fouls+3
Autonomouslevel
0Leave6
5Coral scored#3
23Coral points17
23Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +7
18Coral scored#17
63Coral points62
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
12Processor points6
16Net points16
28Algae points22
91Total teleop84
Reef
6L4#9
8L3#4
5L2#5
4L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +3
0Foul points0
118Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.32.3
52.755.0
Auto15.9
Teleop33.0
End8.4
red by 14.7
42.72.9
36.339.2
Auto11.3
Teleop26.4
End5.1
Second
1764
#20
30.32.3
25.928.2
Auto6.6
Teleop23.0
End0.7
red by 6.3
5098
#15
24.04.8
15.620.4
Auto3.4
Teleop17.5
End3.1
Third
1994
#26
12.12.3
9.411.8
Auto3.3
Teleop7.3
End1.5
blue by 10.0
9316
#29
22.22.9
17.920.8
Auto4.1
Teleop16.9
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
61%Auto oddsEarned54%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsMissed53%Barge oddsEarned