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Red106
742142.7
173057.3
1068216.1
Blue73
518917.0
182537.1
93713.2
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12759010015020010673

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+47Teleop
+57Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
0Leave6
9Coral scored#1
44Coral points7
44Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +16
9Coral scored#6
34Coral points22
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
6Processor points6
8Net points4
14Algae points10
48Total teleop32
Reef
7L4#3
5L3#2
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#9
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
0Foul points24
106Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.30.4
55.054.6
Auto15.9
Teleop33.0
End8.4
red by 20.2
37.11.3
37.436.2
Auto10.0
Teleop25.6
End1.6
Second
42.70.3
39.238.9
Auto11.3
Teleop26.4
End5.1
red by 25.7
5189
#25
17.01.3
10.79.4
Auto1.2
Teleop12.5
End3.3
Third
16.10.4
15.715.3
Auto1.3
Teleop12.3
End2.5
red by 2.9
937
#33
13.21.3
12.311.1
Auto2.9
Teleop8.5
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
72%Auto oddsEarned37%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
58%Barge oddsEarned24%Barge oddsMissed