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Red89
511916.1
184741.2
495919.5
Blue61
176430.3
501325.7
234512.5
32%Model gave it68%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions70822040601001208961

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+16Teleop
+28Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
0Leave6
2Coral scored#0
12Coral points0
12Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +10
11Coral scored#10
41Coral points37
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
12Processor points6
8Net points8
20Algae points14
61Total teleop51
Reef
5L4#3
5L3#3
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
17Game pieces#13
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +28
0Foul points0
89Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.21.4
30.632.0
Auto7.5
Teleop30.1
End3.6
red by 11.0
1764
#20
30.32.3
28.226.0
Auto6.6
Teleop23.0
End0.7
Second
19.51.4
17.118.5
Auto3.3
Teleop13.5
End2.7
blue by 6.2
5013
#16
25.72.3
30.628.4
Auto5.4
Teleop18.6
End1.7
Third
5119
#34
16.11.4
16.718.2
Auto2.7
Teleop10.1
End3.3
red by 3.6
2345
#35
12.52.3
11.79.4
Auto2.7
Teleop9.8
End-0.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
24%Auto oddsEarned64%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
36%Barge oddsEarned14%Barge oddsMissed