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Red48
93531.2
182714.9
445512.8
Blue43
199412.1
200114.4
176918.7
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions605501001502004843

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
+9Teleop
+11Endgame
+5Fouls
AutonomousBlue +6
6Leave0
0Coral scored#2
0Coral points12
6Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +15
7Coral scored#3
24Coral points9
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
0Processor points0
8Net points8
8Algae points8
32Total teleop17
Reef
2L4#2
2L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
9Game pieces#7
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
6Foul points12
48Total score43

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
935
#19
31.21.3
27.025.8
Auto4.6
Teleop24.7
End1.9
red by 12.4
1769
#17
18.71.9
20.218.4
Auto4.3
Teleop11.0
End3.4
Second
1827
#32
14.91.3
12.811.5
Auto4.0
Teleop9.1
End1.8
red by 0.5
2001
#28
14.41.9
17.215.4
Auto5.5
Teleop7.7
End1.2
Third
4455
#18
12.81.3
12.611.4
Auto3.3
Teleop6.5
End2.9
red by 0.6
1994
#26
12.11.9
9.98.0
Auto3.3
Teleop7.3
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
27%Auto oddsMissed36%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsMissed38%Barge oddsEarned