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Red66
518917.0
176430.3
184741.2
Blue39
445512.8
245727.9
176918.7
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions67632040801006639

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+25Teleop
+29Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave0
0Coral scored#2
0Coral points9
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +28
8Coral scored#4
28Coral points16
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
12Processor points0
8Net points4
20Algae points4
48Total teleop20
Reef
4L4#3
2L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
12Game pieces#7
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
6Foul points8
66Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.20.3
20.120.5
Auto7.5
Teleop30.1
End3.6
red by 13.4
2457
#11
27.92.9
23.620.6
Auto5.1
Teleop21.9
End0.8
Second
1764
#20
30.30.3
24.524.8
Auto6.6
Teleop23.0
End0.7
red by 11.6
1769
#17
18.72.9
20.417.4
Auto4.3
Teleop11.0
End3.4
Third
5189
#25
17.00.3
12.512.9
Auto1.2
Teleop12.5
End3.3
red by 4.3
4455
#18
12.82.9
13.610.6
Auto3.3
Teleop6.5
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
40%Auto oddsMissed32%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsMissed47%Barge oddsMissed