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Red33
95549.2
384318.7
998513.8
Blue83
320130.2
172031.3
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions469001001502003383

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+48
Endgame+56
Fouls+50
AutonomousBlue +10
6Leave3
1Coral scored#3
3Coral points16
9Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +38
3Coral scored#10
12Coral points36
0Processor algae#1
0Net algae#2
0Processor points6
0Net points8
0Algae points14
12Total teleop50
Reef
1L4#6
1L3#3
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
4Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +50
6Foul points0
33Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3843
#19
18.71.7
22.721.0
Auto3.1
Teleop12.3
End3.3
blue by 12.7
1720
#11
31.30.0
30.430.5
Auto6.0
Teleop19.2
End6.1
Second
9985
#14
13.82.8
15.412.7
Auto4.4
Teleop8.3
End1.4
blue by 16.4
30.20.0
39.439.4
Auto6.3
Teleop18.9
End5.0
Third
9554
#16
9.21.7
13.912.2
Auto2.7
Teleop6.0
End0.5
blue by 0.2
9.40.0
12.812.8
Auto5.1
Teleop3.4
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsMissed72%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
16%Barge oddsMissed72%Barge oddsEarned