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Red160
492641.0
278358.1
95549.2
Blue108
174738.2
602335.3
75164.5
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12581050100150200250300160108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+38Teleop
+64Endgame
+52Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave0
6Coral scored#3
28Coral points16
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +17
15Coral scored#15
55Coral points54
3Processor algae#3
6Net algae#2
18Processor points18
24Net points8
42Algae points26
97Total teleop80
Reef
8L4#8
6L3#5
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#1
30Game pieces#23
BargeRed +26
26Cage & park0
26Total endgame0
Penalties & totalRed +52
0Foul points12
160Total score108

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.10.9
56.857.7
Auto17.8
Teleop30.8
End9.4
red by 19.9
38.20.1
37.537.6
Auto4.7
Teleop25.8
End7.6
Second
41.00.9
39.840.6
Auto13.4
Teleop20.5
End7.1
red by 5.7
6023
#13
35.30.1
34.634.7
Auto6.3
Teleop28.6
End0.4
Third
9554
#16
9.20.9
7.98.8
Auto2.7
Teleop6.0
End0.5
red by 4.6
7516
#18
4.50.1
3.94.0
Auto3.5
Teleop0.9
End0.1