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Red83
222117.7
346831.8
36422.5
Blue53
303926.1
978729.6
970810.2
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7467204060801001208353

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+10Teleop
+22Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave9
1Coral scored#0
7Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +3
8Coral scored#7
29Coral points24
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#1
6Processor points12
8Net points4
14Algae points16
43Total teleop40
Reef
4L4#3
2L3#2
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
12Game pieces#10
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
8Foul points0
83Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3468
#11
31.80.5
27.327.8
Auto6.2
Teleop21.5
End4.1
red by 2.3
9787
#23
29.61.0
17.416.4
Auto6.5
Teleop19.4
End3.7
Second
364
#24
22.50.5
22.623.2
Auto6.1
Teleop10.8
End5.5
blue by 3.7
3039
#47
26.10.7
26.225.6
Auto6.3
Teleop16.4
End3.4
Third
2221
#34
17.70.5
14.615.1
Auto3.9
Teleop10.6
End3.2
red by 7.6
9708
#55
10.21.0
15.514.5
Auto1.1
Teleop8.3
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsEarned23%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
36%Barge oddsEarned44%Barge oddsMissed