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Red135
978729.6
346831.8
299256.4
Blue159
218329.7
408739.8
191245.8
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10511280100120140135159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
Teleop+18
Endgame+28
Fouls+24
AutonomousBlue +13
6Leave9
2Coral scored#4
10Coral points20
16Total auto29
TeleoperatedBlue +5
18Coral scored#18
63Coral points64
3Processor algae#3
5Net algae#6
18Processor points18
20Net points24
38Algae points42
101Total teleop106
Reef
9L4#8
6L3#6
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#4
28Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +24
4Foul points0
135Total score159

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2992
#10
56.41.8
48.150.0
Auto11.6
Teleop42.6
End2.2
red by 10.6
1912
#16
45.83.2
36.739.9
Auto8.4
Teleop34.5
End2.8
Second
3468
#11
31.81.8
27.829.6
Auto6.2
Teleop21.5
End4.1
blue by 8.0
39.83.2
34.938.0
Auto7.4
Teleop23.7
End8.7
Third
9787
#23
29.63.0
16.419.5
Auto6.5
Teleop19.4
End3.7
blue by 0.2
2183
#20
29.73.2
28.832.0
Auto5.1
Teleop19.5
End5.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
38%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
18%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
17%Barge oddsEarned78%Barge oddsEarned