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Red97
36422.5
142130.8
433637.3
Blue112
310237.8
45654.2
375320.1
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1041335015020097112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+23
Endgame+21
Fouls+15
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave9
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points4
9Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +19
12Coral scored#15
42Coral points53
2Processor algae#4
3Net algae#2
12Processor points24
12Net points8
24Algae points32
66Total teleop85
Reef
4L4#6
3L3#5
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#22
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +15
6Foul points0
97Total score112

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4336
#38
37.30.0
37.337.3
Auto4.8
Teleop30.9
End1.6
blue by 16.9
456
#5
54.20.0
53.953.9
Auto6.7
Teleop40.2
End7.3
Second
30.80.0
30.830.8
Auto2.5
Teleop22.8
End5.5
blue by 6.9
3102
#14
37.80.0
37.537.5
Auto5.4
Teleop27.9
End4.5
Third
364
#24
22.50.0
22.522.5
Auto6.1
Teleop10.8
End5.5
red by 2.3
3753
#42
20.10.0
19.819.8
Auto5.0
Teleop14.0
End1.2