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Red163
299248.1
96995.7
804486.9
Blue119
999428.9
945617.2
408743.6
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16965050100150200250300163119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+16Auto
+34Teleop
+42Endgame
+44Fouls
AutonomousRed +16
0Leave0
7Coral scored#4
37Coral points21
37Total auto21
TeleoperatedRed +18
21Coral scored#16
74Coral points58
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
18Processor points12
16Net points20
34Algae points32
108Total teleop90
Reef
7L4#7
9L3#6
6L2#4
6L1 · trough#3
35Game pieces#27
BargeRed +8
12Cage & park4
12Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +44
6Foul points4
163Total score119

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
86.90.5
84.885.3
Auto17.4
Teleop58.5
End10.9
red by 43.3
43.60.8
40.941.7
Auto8.3
Teleop26.0
End9.3
Second
48.10.5
46.146.6
Auto10.9
Teleop34.4
End2.9
red by 19.3
28.91.2
24.826.0
Auto8.1
Teleop19.0
End1.5
Third
9699
#19
5.70.8
2.53.3
Auto2.0
Teleop2.7
End1.0
blue by 11.5
9456
#17
17.20.8
14.615.3
Auto4.5
Teleop12.3
End0.5