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Red122
36423.9
832424.4
191243.4
Blue105
346825.2
218327.7
915322.7
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10279050150200122105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+7Teleop
+5Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave6
3Coral scored#2
13Coral points10
19Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +4
18Coral scored#14
65Coral points51
0Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
0Processor points6
12Net points16
12Algae points22
77Total teleop73
Reef
10L4#8
4L3#3
5L2#2
2L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +17
12Foul points0
122Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1912
#12
43.40.4
43.143.5
Auto10.4
Teleop31.0
End1.9
red by 15.7
2183
#15
27.70.7
27.027.7
Auto3.9
Teleop19.8
End4.0
Second
8324
#22
24.40.4
24.124.5
Auto4.7
Teleop18.7
End1.2
blue by 0.8
25.20.7
24.525.2
Auto4.6
Teleop17.8
End2.9
Third
364
#4
23.90.4
23.624.0
Auto6.5
Teleop12.1
End5.3
red by 1.2
9153
#10
22.70.7
22.022.7
Auto6.6
Teleop14.9
End1.2