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Red190
801358.7
287774.2
127733.8
Blue123
596210.8
287635.8
176871.0
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions191116050100150250190123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+39Teleop
+57Endgame
+67Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
6Leave9
7Coral scored#4
34Coral points18
40Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +26
21Coral scored#19
76Coral points70
3Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
18Processor points6
20Net points12
38Algae points18
114Total teleop88
Reef
9L4#10
7L3#5
8L2#5
4L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#27
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +67
12Foul points2
190Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
74.20.0
73.373.3
Auto20.8
Teleop43.8
End9.5
red by 3.2
71.00.1
67.167.0
Auto19.8
Teleop44.6
End6.6
Second
58.70.0
62.062.0
Auto9.3
Teleop40.7
End8.8
red by 22.9
35.80.1
38.438.3
Auto9.3
Teleop26.0
End0.5
Third
1277
#15
33.80.0
31.731.7
Auto5.9
Teleop20.2
End7.7
red by 23.0
5962
#23
10.80.1
5.55.4
Auto2.5
Teleop8.8
End-0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
51%Coral oddsMissed41%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned25%Barge oddsMissed