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Red113
66346.4
964454.9
242336.6
Blue124
127733.8
944326.5
83964.4
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15713450100200113124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+9Teleop
Endgame+11
Fouls+11
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave3
6Coral scored#4
31Coral points20
37Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +5
14Coral scored#12
52Coral points43
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#5
6Processor points12
12Net points20
18Algae points32
70Total teleop75
Reef
8L4#5
7L3#4
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +11
0Foul points0
113Total score124

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9644
#16
54.91.9
54.452.4
Auto11.9
Teleop40.8
End2.2
blue by 9.5
839
#12
64.40.2
65.065.2
Auto9.4
Teleop44.0
End11.0
Second
663
#19
46.41.9
46.444.5
Auto7.7
Teleop38.4
End0.4
red by 12.6
1277
#15
33.80.2
31.731.9
Auto5.9
Teleop20.2
End7.7
Third
2423
#22
36.61.9
41.439.4
Auto11.8
Teleop21.3
End3.5
red by 10.1
9443
#20
26.50.2
23.724.0
Auto4.4
Teleop16.4
End5.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned79%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
68%Coral oddsMissed25%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsMissed92%Barge oddsEarned