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Qual 182025 MA State Championship
Red150
1025438.7
46759.5
862640.4
Blue177
110058.7
115358.2
596210.8
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions159137050100200250150177

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+2
Teleop+19
Endgame+27
Fouls+27
AutonomousBlue +2
6Leave3
4Coral scored#5
20Coral points25
26Total auto28
TeleoperatedBlue +17
28Coral scored#26
100Coral points95
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#7
6Processor points12
12Net points28
18Algae points40
118Total teleop135
Reef
12L4#9
10L3#8
4L2#7
6L1 · trough#7
36Game pieces#40
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +27
0Foul points0
150Total score177

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
467
#21
59.50.4
60.6→60.2
Auto13.6
Teleop38.1
End7.8
red by 0.8
1100
#4
58.72.7
59.4→62.1
Auto12.2
Teleop39.4
End7.1
Second
8626
#18
40.40.4
39.4→39.0
Auto6.4
Teleop33.1
End0.9
blue by 17.8
1153
#3
58.22.7
52.0→54.7
Auto9.7
Teleop43.2
End5.4
Third
10254
#11
38.70.4
35.6→35.2
Auto9.7
Teleop19.9
End9.1
red by 27.9
5962
#23
10.82.7
5.4→8.1
Auto2.5
Teleop8.8
End-0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsEarned48%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
85%Barge oddsMissed68%Barge oddsEarned