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Red152
83964.4
242336.6
490963.3
Blue161
46759.5
1025438.7
620146.8
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions197167050100150250300152161

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+9
Teleop+19
Endgame+9
Fouls+9
AutonomousBlue +9
6Leave0
6Coral scored#9
31Coral points46
37Total auto46
TeleoperatedBlue +10
13Coral scored#18
45Coral points65
4Processor algae#3
5Net algae#4
24Processor points18
20Net points16
44Algae points34
89Total teleop99
Reef
5L4#11
6L3#7
6L2#5
2L1 · trough#4
28Game pieces#34
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +9
0Foul points0
152Total score161

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
839
#12
64.40.8
65.264.4
Auto9.4
Teleop44.0
End11.0
red by 4.9
467
#21
59.50.2
59.159.0
Auto13.6
Teleop38.1
End7.8
Second
63.30.8
64.163.3
Auto16.3
Teleop38.7
End8.3
red by 16.5
6201
#17
46.80.2
46.546.3
Auto10.8
Teleop29.2
End6.9
Third
2423
#22
36.60.8
37.436.6
Auto11.8
Teleop21.3
End3.5
blue by 2.1
38.70.2
38.338.2
Auto9.7
Teleop19.9
End9.1