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Red179
837342.3
999234.7
22659.3
Blue135
283257.5
442242.8
999312.3
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions129162050100200250300350400179135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+36Teleop
+44Endgame
+44Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave6
3Coral scored#5
17Coral points24
26Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +40
25Coral scored#18
89Coral points65
2Processor algae#2
7Net algae#3
12Processor points12
28Net points12
40Algae points24
129Total teleop89
Reef
13L4#10
5L3#6
5L2#5
5L1 · trough#2
37Game pieces#28
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +44
0Foul points0
179Total score135

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
226
#2
59.33.4
53.657.0
Auto14.3
Teleop35.2
End9.7
red by 1.8
2832
#13
57.51.1
70.068.9
Auto15.4
Teleop37.4
End4.7
Second
42.33.4
31.935.3
Auto6.7
Teleop31.9
End3.7
blue by 0.6
42.81.1
44.443.3
Auto9.8
Teleop23.1
End9.9
Third
9992
#15
34.75.7
22.127.8
Auto10.2
Teleop20.4
End4.3
red by 22.5
9993
#19
12.31.8
17.515.7
Auto5.0
Teleop3.2
End4.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned64%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed28%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
76%Barge oddsEarned47%Barge oddsEarned