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Qual 292025 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)
Red135
353855.9
514431.5
686134.5
Blue121
999312.3
837342.3
438138.3
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13590050200250300350135121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+36Teleop
+14Endgame
+14Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave6
6Coral scored#5
28Coral points27
37Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +32
21Coral scored#12
76Coral points44
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
6Processor points6
12Net points12
18Algae points18
94Total teleop62
Reef
10L4#4
8L3#6
6L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
31Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +14
0Foul points0
135Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3538
#11
55.90.7
48.8→49.5
Auto14.7
Teleop40.4
End0.7
red by 13.6
8373
#6
42.32.3
33.5→35.7
Auto6.7
Teleop31.9
End3.7
Second
6861
#4
34.50.7
37.1→37.8
Auto6.6
Teleop21.3
End6.6
blue by 3.9
4381
#5
38.32.3
38.1→40.4
Auto6.6
Teleop23.8
End7.9
Third
5144
#12
31.50.7
33.0→33.7
Auto4.5
Teleop24.4
End2.6
red by 19.2
9993
#19
12.33.5
9.2→12.8
Auto5.0
Teleop3.2
End4.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned79%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
16%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsMissed56%Barge oddsEarned