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Red171
657034.1
353855.9
608143.5
Blue151
999619.7
283257.5
999234.7
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions142116050100200250171151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
Teleop+8
+14Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousBlue +17
6Leave9
4Coral scored#7
21Coral points35
27Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +9
21Coral scored#16
76Coral points57
1Processor algae#2
6Net algae#7
6Processor points12
24Net points28
30Algae points40
106Total teleop97
Reef
8L4#6
8L3#7
5L2#5
4L1 · trough#5
32Game pieces#32
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
12Foul points6
171Total score151

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3538
#11
55.92.0
54.756.7
Auto14.7
Teleop40.4
End0.7
blue by 1.6
2832
#13
57.52.5
58.461.0
Auto15.4
Teleop37.4
End4.7
Second
6081
#10
43.52.0
39.341.2
Auto5.4
Teleop31.5
End6.6
red by 8.8
9992
#15
34.73.1
29.532.6
Auto10.2
Teleop20.4
End4.3
Third
34.12.0
29.731.7
Auto7.4
Teleop16.8
End9.9
red by 14.4
9996
#16
19.73.1
13.816.9
Auto6.7
Teleop12.4
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsMissed60%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed21%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
77%Barge oddsEarned13%Barge oddsMissed