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Red115
176869.3
545939.7
318232.6
Blue122
1039321.9
12642.7
110051.6
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15011750100200250115122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
Teleop+29
Endgame+9
Fouls+7
AutonomousRed +18
9Leave0
4Coral scored#2
21Coral points12
30Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +47
14Coral scored#19
49Coral points68
1Processor algae#3
1Net algae#5
6Processor points18
4Net points20
10Algae points38
59Total teleop106
Reef
7L4#9
4L3#4
5L2#5
2L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#29
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +7
2Foul points0
115Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.31.4
64.062.6
Auto14.3
Teleop47.1
End7.9
red by 17.7
51.60.7
50.050.6
Auto7.3
Teleop39.0
End5.3
Second
39.71.4
40.539.1
Auto8.8
Teleop29.4
End1.5
blue by 3.1
126
#22
42.70.7
37.337.9
Auto4.6
Teleop37.2
End1.0
Third
3182
#33
32.61.4
29.428.0
Auto4.6
Teleop20.8
End7.2
red by 10.7
21.90.7
24.925.6
Auto7.0
Teleop12.4
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
44%Coral oddsEarned31%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
91%Barge oddsEarned43%Barge oddsMissed