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Red103
218615.8
138927.3
511519.9
Blue20
144613.9
291410.7
450522.2
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6644020608010012010320

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+21Teleop
+35Endgame
+83Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave6
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
13Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +14
3Coral scored#2
12Coral points8
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
22Total teleop8
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
7Game pieces#2
BargeRed +14
14Cage & park0
14Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +83
54Foul points6
103Total score20

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1389
#19
27.30.9
23.322.4
Auto5.8
Teleop15.3
End6.2
red by 5.0
4505
#11
22.21.9
12.911.0
Auto4.5
Teleop16.4
End1.3
Second
19.90.5
17.316.8
Auto5.5
Teleop10.3
End4.1
red by 6.0
1446
#25
13.93.2
14.311.1
Auto2.6
Teleop9.6
End1.7
Third
2186
#17
15.80.9
16.015.2
Auto4.2
Teleop8.9
End2.7
red by 5.1
2914
#23
10.73.2
15.212.0
Auto3.4
Teleop3.5
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsMissed35%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
32%Barge oddsEarned23%Barge oddsMissed