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Red79
903318.3
11617.7
189532.7
Blue85
823012.8
450522.2
872625.2
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions766120401001207985

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+28
Endgame+6
Fouls+6
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave6
2Coral scored#3
9Coral points13
12Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +21
7Coral scored#9
25Coral points34
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#4
6Processor points6
4Net points16
10Algae points22
35Total teleop56
Reef
4L4#5
2L3#3
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
11Game pieces#17
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Penalties & totalBlue +6
6Foul points6
79Total score85

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1895
#12
32.70.1
32.632.7
Auto4.2
Teleop24.5
End4.0
red by 7.5
8726
#10
25.20.4
24.825.3
Auto5.7
Teleop17.9
End1.6
Second
9033
#15
18.30.1
18.218.3
Auto2.3
Teleop12.2
End3.8
blue by 3.9
4505
#11
22.20.4
21.822.3
Auto4.5
Teleop16.4
End1.3
Third
116
#4
17.70.1
17.617.7
Auto4.8
Teleop7.1
End5.8
red by 4.9
8230
#28
12.80.5
12.412.9
Auto3.7
Teleop7.7
End1.4