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Red122
859247.4
83665.7
524317.6
Blue32
111122.9
99925.6
99981.5
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1573005010020025012232

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+80Teleop
+90Endgame
+90Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
6Leave6
5Coral scored#0
24Coral points0
30Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +56
16Coral scored#4
58Coral points14
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
12Processor points0
8Net points8
20Algae points8
78Total teleop22
Reef
9L4#1
5L3#2
4L2#1
3L1 · trough#0
25Game pieces#6
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +90
0Foul points0
122Total score32

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
836
#3
65.70.3
64.063.7
Auto14.6
Teleop41.6
End9.4
red by 42.8
22.90.0
23.723.8
Auto4.3
Teleop16.4
End2.2
Second
47.40.3
46.646.3
Auto11.4
Teleop30.7
End5.2
red by 41.7
9992
#28
5.60.1
5.65.6
Auto1.0
Teleop4.0
End0.8
Third
5243
#10
17.60.3
16.115.8
Auto4.5
Teleop12.2
End0.8
red by 16.0
9998
#12
1.50.1
2.12.1
Auto2.7
Teleop-1.3
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned46%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
20%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned6%Barge oddsMissed