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Red103
11612.9
788613.8
162950.3
Blue97
533836.8
686316.5
61116.3
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6260020408010012014010397

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+4Teleop
+6Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave3
3Coral scored#3
17Coral points13
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +3
14Coral scored#15
50Coral points55
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
12Processor points6
12Net points16
24Algae points22
74Total teleop77
Reef
4L4#4
5L3#8
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#23
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
0Foul points0
103Total score97

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.33.8
34.438.3
Auto17.1
Teleop30.3
End2.9
red by 13.4
36.83.2
21.925.1
Auto5.9
Teleop29.1
End1.8
Second
7886
#30
13.83.8
10.414.3
Auto2.3
Teleop10.4
End1.2
blue by 2.6
6863
#33
16.53.2
13.116.3
Auto4.6
Teleop10.6
End1.3
Third
116
#16
12.93.8
10.614.5
Auto3.1
Teleop6.3
End3.4
blue by 3.4
611
#28
16.33.2
17.921.1
Auto4.4
Teleop10.5
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
27%Auto oddsEarned27%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsMissed21%Barge oddsMissed