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Red63
777013.8
88838.1
58417.3
Blue53
621312.1
111114.0
62036.9
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions515902040801006353

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+8Teleop
+10Endgame
+10Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave6
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +5
7Coral scored#9
26Coral points33
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#1
6Processor points6
16Net points4
22Algae points10
48Total teleop43
Reef
3L4#4
2L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#2
12Game pieces#11
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +10
0Foul points0
63Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
888
#4
38.11.4
25.927.3
Auto9.9
Teleop25.0
End3.2
red by 1.1
620
#5
36.90.7
25.324.5
Auto8.3
Teleop25.8
End2.9
Second
7770
#15
13.81.4
12.614.0
Auto4.9
Teleop8.0
End0.9
blue by 0.2
1111
#29
14.00.7
12.211.4
Auto3.3
Teleop9.1
End1.7
Third
5841
#27
7.31.4
6.27.6
Auto3.8
Teleop1.4
End2.2
blue by 4.8
6213
#31
12.10.7
13.212.5
Auto2.9
Teleop7.9
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
15%Auto oddsMissed15%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
16%Barge oddsMissed23%Barge oddsMissed