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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions533802060801006225

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+31Teleop
+31Endgame
+37Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points3
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +28
9Coral scored#3
33Coral points11
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
43Total teleop15
Reef
4L4#1
3L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
12Game pieces#5
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +37
6Foul points0
62Total score25

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
36.81.2
25.126.3
Auto5.9
Teleop29.1
End1.8
red by 23.9
116
#16
12.91.1
14.513.4
Auto3.1
Teleop6.3
End3.4
Second
612
#22
11.71.2
11.012.2
Auto2.3
Teleop7.8
End1.6
blue by 1.2
2537
#37
12.91.1
11.910.8
Auto4.2
Teleop7.2
End1.5
Third
2849
#36
8.51.2
9.310.4
Auto2.7
Teleop4.2
End1.6
blue by 1.3
2963
#17
9.81.1
8.17.1
Auto2.7
Teleop6.2
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
32%Auto oddsMissed19%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsMissed21%Barge oddsMissed