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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions575301001502006441

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+23Teleop
+23Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave9
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +26
9Coral scored#6
34Coral points22
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
6Processor points0
12Net points4
18Algae points4
52Total teleop26
Reef
4L4#3
3L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#7
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
0Foul points0
64Total score41

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4821
#11
27.11.0
21.222.2
Auto5.2
Teleop17.3
End4.5
red by 10.6
6863
#33
16.50.7
18.117.4
Auto4.6
Teleop10.6
End1.3
Second
1719
#24
16.71.0
11.912.9
Auto3.7
Teleop11.0
End2.0
red by 3.8
116
#16
12.90.7
11.410.7
Auto3.1
Teleop6.3
End3.4
Third
5549
#23
8.21.0
8.79.7
Auto1.0
Teleop6.0
End1.3
red by 0.9
5841
#27
7.30.7
9.99.2
Auto3.8
Teleop1.4
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
23%Auto oddsMissed28%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsMissed17%Barge oddsMissed