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Red73
62036.9
777013.8
11612.9
Blue22
511518.2
253712.9
445613.8
76%Model gave it24%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions67460204060801001201407322

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+41Teleop
+41Endgame
+51Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave6
4Coral scored#1
19Coral points3
19Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +31
6Coral scored#3
22Coral points9
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#0
6Processor points0
12Net points0
18Algae points0
40Total teleop9
Reef
4L4#2
2L3#1
3L2#0
1L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#4
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +51
10Foul points0
73Total score22

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
620
#5
36.90.4
34.334.7
Auto8.3
Teleop25.8
End2.9
red by 18.7
5115
#12
18.22.1
19.817.7
Auto5.0
Teleop9.3
End3.9
Second
7770
#15
13.80.4
13.513.9
Auto4.9
Teleop8.0
End0.9
red by 0.1
4456
#18
13.82.1
12.610.5
Auto2.3
Teleop9.2
End2.3
Third
116
#16
12.90.4
10.711.1
Auto3.1
Teleop6.3
End3.4
Level
2537
#37
12.92.1
12.910.9
Auto4.2
Teleop7.2
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
46%Auto oddsEarned23%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsMissed41%Barge oddsMissed