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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6175020401001201401603625

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+9Teleop
+13Endgame
+11Fouls
Autonomouslevel
0Leave0
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points6
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +9
4Coral scored#4
16Coral points13
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
26Total teleop17
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
7Game pieces#6
BargeRed +4
4Cage & park0
4Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points2
36Total score25

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4821
#11
27.12.8
20.918.1
Auto5.2
Teleop17.3
End4.5
blue by 1.3
686
#10
28.35.0
29.324.4
Auto6.1
Teleop20.5
End1.8
Second
6863
#33
16.52.8
14.011.3
Auto4.6
Teleop10.6
End1.3
red by 4.8
612
#22
11.75.0
14.29.2
Auto2.3
Teleop7.8
End1.6
Third
2963
#17
9.82.8
17.014.2
Auto2.7
Teleop6.2
End0.9
red by 1.5
2377
#35
8.35.0
18.213.2
Auto3.5
Teleop3.6
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
27%Auto oddsMissed35%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsMissed38%Barge oddsMissed