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Red111
454123.0
374836.3
33919.6
Blue129
172743.8
188526.0
379320.0
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions658402040100120140160111129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
Teleop+16
Endgame+24
Fouls+18
AutonomousRed +1
3Leave6
3Coral scored#2
13Coral points9
16Total auto15
TeleoperatedBlue +17
19Coral scored#21
67Coral points76
2Processor algae#2
1Net algae#3
12Processor points12
4Net points12
16Algae points24
83Total teleop100
Reef
11L4#6
5L3#7
3L2#6
3L1 · trough#4
25Game pieces#28
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +18
6Foul points0
111Total score129

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
36.33.1
25.328.4
Auto5.3
Teleop23.2
End7.8
blue by 7.5
43.82.3
39.541.8
Auto6.7
Teleop29.0
End8.1
Second
4541
#15
23.01.8
14.216.0
Auto5.1
Teleop16.6
End1.3
blue by 3.0
26.03.9
16.019.8
Auto5.5
Teleop19.0
End1.5
Third
339
#18
19.61.8
19.020.8
Auto6.4
Teleop12.8
End0.4
blue by 0.4
3793
#12
20.03.9
18.622.5
Auto4.5
Teleop14.5
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
41%Auto oddsEarned54%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsEarned61%Barge oddsEarned