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Red44
404119.5
669119.6
359720.5
Blue49
264835.5
417616.6
6124.6
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions71914060801001204449

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+17
Endgame+5
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +10
6Leave6
0Coral scored#2
0Coral points10
6Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +7
5Coral scored#5
18Coral points19
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#3
6Processor points0
0Net points12
6Algae points12
24Total teleop31
Reef
2L4#2
1L3#3
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#10
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
0Foul points0
44Total score49

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3597
#27
20.53.0
22.019.0
Auto2.5
Teleop15.5
End2.5
blue by 15.0
2648
#19
35.53.8
30.026.2
Auto4.7
Teleop30.9
End-0.1
Second
19.63.0
17.614.6
Auto3.6
Teleop13.3
End2.7
blue by 4.9
61
#16
24.63.8
23.119.3
Auto5.5
Teleop12.8
End6.2
Third
4041
#22
19.53.0
22.519.5
Auto4.0
Teleop10.7
End4.8
red by 2.8
4176
#13
16.63.8
22.518.6
Auto3.9
Teleop11.6
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
52%Auto oddsMissed20%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
58%Barge oddsEarned74%Barge oddsMissed