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Red175
928029.5
440073.7
742135.7
Blue179
347865.2
754621.5
463566.6
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions140163050100200250300175179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+6Teleop
Endgame+4
Fouls+4
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave6
8Coral scored#9
41Coral points45
44Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +13
21Coral scored#21
75Coral points76
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
18Processor points12
16Net points8
34Algae points20
109Total teleop96
Reef
12L4#10
9L3#9
3L2#8
5L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +4
6Foul points6
175Total score179

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
73.70.7
73.073.7
Auto20.8
Teleop44.3
End8.6
red by 7.1
66.60.5
66.266.6
Auto17.5
Teleop38.7
End10.4
Second
35.70.7
35.035.7
Auto8.3
Teleop24.2
End3.3
blue by 29.5
65.20.5
64.865.2
Auto18.1
Teleop39.1
End8.0
Third
9280
#37
29.50.7
28.829.5
Auto4.7
Teleop22.8
End1.9
red by 8.0
7546
#21
21.50.5
21.021.5
Auto3.8
Teleop16.3
End1.4