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Red163
928029.5
440073.7
742135.7
Blue181
347865.2
754621.5
463566.6
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions138163050100200250300350163181

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+2
+8Endgame
Fouls+18
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave3
8Coral scored#9
41Coral points44
44Total auto47
TeleoperatedRed +1
21Coral scored#19
75Coral points68
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#3
6Processor points12
12Net points12
18Algae points24
93Total teleop92
Reef
8L4#10
11L3#10
5L2#5
5L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#33
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +18
0Foul points26
163Total score181

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
73.70.6
72.473.0
Auto20.8
Teleop44.3
End8.6
red by 7.1
66.60.1
66.166.2
Auto17.5
Teleop38.7
End10.4
Second
35.70.6
34.435.0
Auto8.3
Teleop24.2
End3.3
blue by 29.5
65.20.1
64.764.8
Auto18.1
Teleop39.1
End8.0
Third
9280
#37
29.50.6
28.128.8
Auto4.7
Teleop22.8
End1.9
red by 8.0
7546
#21
21.50.1
21.021.0
Auto3.8
Teleop16.3
End1.4