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Red108
347865.2
921310.1
665220.2
Blue38
92825.4
754621.5
35277.1
93%Model gave it7%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1061605015020010838

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+66Teleop
+66Endgame
+70Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave6
6Coral scored#1
30Coral points3
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +45
12Coral scored#5
44Coral points17
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
12Processor points6
12Net points0
24Algae points6
68Total teleop23
Reef
8L4#2
4L3#2
3L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
23Game pieces#7
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +70
4Foul points0
108Total score38

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.21.2
61.362.5
Auto18.1
Teleop39.1
End8.0
red by 43.7
7546
#21
21.50.3
17.818.1
Auto3.8
Teleop16.3
End1.4
Second
6652
#18
20.21.2
12.213.4
Auto3.8
Teleop16.0
End0.4
red by 13.2
3527
#26
7.10.4
10.310.6
Auto2.8
Teleop4.3
End0.0
Third
9213
#12
10.11.2
12.313.5
Auto2.8
Teleop6.4
End0.9
red by 4.8
9282
#29
5.40.3
5.15.5
Auto2.1
Teleop2.4
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
61%Auto oddsEarned12%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
49%Barge oddsMissed6%Barge oddsMissed