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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7862020401001201408741

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+34Teleop
+46Endgame
+46Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave3
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points9
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +37
11Coral scored#5
38Coral points19
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
12Processor points6
12Net points0
24Algae points6
62Total teleop25
Reef
4L4#2
4L3#2
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
17Game pieces#8
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +46
0Foul points0
87Total score41

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.52.2
33.535.7
Auto10.3
Teleop34.1
End8.0
red by 13.4
39.11.8
28.726.9
Auto6.6
Teleop28.9
End3.6
Second
3875
#24
28.22.2
21.924.1
Auto2.9
Teleop24.0
End1.3
red by 7.5
5980
#15
20.81.8
15.714.0
Auto5.1
Teleop12.6
End3.1
Third
7256
#17
15.92.2
11.613.9
Auto3.3
Teleop10.3
End2.2
red by 6.3
7254
#33
9.51.8
12.510.7
Auto3.2
Teleop3.7
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
33%Auto oddsMissed42%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsMissed