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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions954902040608012014016011242

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+52Teleop
+64Endgame
+70Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
3Leave9
7Coral scored#0
34Coral points0
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +24
12Coral scored#6
43Coral points21
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
53Total teleop29
Reef
8L4#3
3L3#1
5L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#8
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +70
6Foul points0
112Total score42

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.31.9
34.135.9
Auto17.2
Teleop25.8
End9.3
red by 34.0
4810
#35
18.31.9
19.317.5
Auto2.9
Teleop14.9
End0.4
Second
6081
#10
32.51.9
31.533.4
Auto7.8
Teleop22.9
End1.8
red by 15.3
5501
#13
17.21.9
15.914.0
Auto3.7
Teleop11.8
End1.7
Third
5623
#21
21.01.9
12.514.4
Auto3.8
Teleop14.9
End2.3
red by 4.2
4453
#22
16.81.9
12.310.4
Auto4.3
Teleop8.5
End4.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsEarned29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsEarned18%Barge oddsMissed