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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7451204060801001209953

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+36Teleop
+46Endgame
+46Fouls
Autonomouslevel
9Leave9
2Coral scored#2
11Coral points11
20Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +36
13Coral scored#6
45Coral points21
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
6Processor points6
12Net points0
18Algae points6
63Total teleop27
Reef
6L4#3
4L3#2
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
19Game pieces#9
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +46
0Foul points0
99Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.23.4
29.132.5
Auto8.7
Teleop28.8
End1.6
red by 0.1
39.10.1
28.528.4
Auto6.6
Teleop28.9
End3.6
Second
5152
#27
24.13.4
20.123.5
Auto4.3
Teleop14.5
End5.4
red by 12.0
9203
#28
12.10.1
9.19.1
Auto3.6
Teleop6.3
End2.2
Third
5501
#13
17.23.4
13.216.6
Auto3.7
Teleop11.8
End1.7
red by 5.7
9238
#38
11.50.1
10.810.7
Auto1.6
Teleop8.9
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
45%Auto oddsMissed34%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsMissed