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Red136
872828.4
477933.8
86257.4
Blue104
661551.3
837328.3
973514.4
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11263050100150136104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+20Teleop
+32Endgame
+32Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave9
5Coral scored#0
27Coral points0
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +1
13Coral scored#16
48Coral points59
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#5
18Processor points12
24Net points20
42Algae points32
90Total teleop91
Reef
4L4#6
6L3#6
4L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
27Game pieces#23
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +32
0Foul points0
136Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
862
#1
57.42.0
48.850.8
Auto13.0
Teleop36.0
End8.4
red by 6.1
6615
#17
51.33.7
28.732.5
Auto8.5
Teleop41.1
End1.7
Second
4779
#23
33.82.0
23.725.6
Auto7.5
Teleop21.5
End4.8
red by 5.5
8373
#28
28.33.7
20.324.0
Auto5.4
Teleop20.4
End2.4
Third
8728
#14
28.43.3
22.926.1
Auto4.6
Teleop21.9
End1.9
red by 14.0
9735
#29
14.43.7
10.113.9
Auto4.7
Teleop7.2
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned37%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
78%Barge oddsEarned41%Barge oddsMissed