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Red115
776961.3
973514.4
569520.1
Blue99
766018.4
656625.5
5144.3
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions989970809011012013014011599

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+2Teleop
+10Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave9
3Coral scored#1
14Coral points7
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +5
12Coral scored#15
44Coral points55
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
12Processor points6
16Net points16
28Algae points22
72Total teleop77
Reef
7L4#6
3L3#3
2L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
21Game pieces#21
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
6Foul points0
115Total score99

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.30.4
50.050.4
Auto13.1
Teleop37.6
End10.6
red by 17.0
51
#7
44.30.4
36.636.2
Auto6.2
Teleop32.0
End6.1
Second
20.10.7
16.617.2
Auto3.0
Teleop14.7
End2.4
blue by 5.4
6566
#26
25.50.2
20.320.1
Auto3.1
Teleop19.9
End2.5
Third
9735
#29
14.40.7
13.113.7
Auto4.7
Teleop7.2
End2.5
blue by 3.9
7660
#33
18.40.2
18.518.3
Auto2.4
Teleop13.0
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned52%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
72%Barge oddsEarned52%Barge oddsMissed