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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10045020608012014016014282

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
+60Teleop
+48Endgame
+60Fouls
AutonomousRed +2
6Leave9
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points4
15Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +58
18Coral scored#9
65Coral points31
3Processor algae#1
7Net algae#4
18Processor points6
28Net points16
46Algae points22
111Total teleop53
Reef
6L4#4
7L3#3
5L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
30Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +60
12Foul points0
142Total score82

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6615
#17
51.32.3
45.147.4
Auto8.5
Teleop41.1
End1.7
red by 27.3
5090
#30
24.01.6
22.424.0
Auto6.2
Teleop14.8
End2.9
Second
4737
#36
22.02.1
19.922.0
Auto5.6
Teleop14.8
End1.6
red by 7.1
6538
#32
15.01.6
13.415.0
Auto3.5
Teleop6.6
End4.9
Third
8774
#16
17.31.9
15.317.3
Auto2.8
Teleop12.5
End2.0
red by 8.1
6057
#40
9.21.8
7.49.2
Auto1.7
Teleop4.0
End3.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsEarned31%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed36%Barge oddsEarned