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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions86890501001502006872

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
Teleop+2
Endgame+4
Fouls+4
AutonomousBlue +1
0Leave0
3Coral scored#3
15Coral points16
15Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +1
9Coral scored#9
33Coral points32
2Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
12Processor points6
4Net points12
16Algae points18
49Total teleop50
Reef
5L4#4
3L3#4
3L2#3
1L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +4
0Foul points0
68Total score72

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.50.6
25.625.0
Auto6.4
Teleop26.8
End1.2
blue by 2.2
36.70.3
25.525.2
Auto2.7
Teleop31.1
End2.8
Second
9566
#26
25.20.3
18.618.2
Auto5.3
Teleop18.6
End1.3
blue by 2.1
7174
#23
27.30.3
21.821.5
Auto8.9
Teleop16.5
End1.9
Third
9106
#33
20.10.6
20.019.4
Auto2.4
Teleop15.1
End2.6
red by 0.1
5227
#16
20.00.2
19.719.5
Auto3.4
Teleop13.9
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
41%Auto oddsMissed33%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
9%Barge oddsMissed24%Barge oddsMissed