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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions144705010020012568

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+49Teleop
+57Endgame
+57Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
9Leave3
2Coral scored#3
10Coral points15
19Total auto18
TeleoperatedRed +48
17Coral scored#9
60Coral points32
2Processor algae#0
5Net algae#3
12Processor points0
20Net points12
32Algae points12
92Total teleop44
Reef
5L4#5
7L3#3
3L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
26Game pieces#15
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +57
0Foul points0
125Total score68

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.90.1
52.051.9
Auto11.9
Teleop40.0
End9.0
red by 29.1
31.80.4
27.627.2
Auto6.4
Teleop23.4
End2.1
Second
33.70.1
30.130.0
Auto6.9
Teleop18.5
End8.3
red by 15.1
7814
#20
18.60.4
16.316.0
Auto4.4
Teleop11.0
End3.1
Third
244
#7
32.70.1
30.730.6
Auto5.0
Teleop25.5
End2.2
red by 17.6
5702
#32
15.00.4
15.615.2
Auto4.5
Teleop8.6
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned64%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
93%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsMissed