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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions118715010015085116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+27
Endgame+33
Fouls+31
Autonomouslevel
0Leave9
2Coral scored#1
12Coral points3
12Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +27
15Coral scored#19
53Coral points68
1Processor algae#3
2Net algae#2
6Processor points18
8Net points8
14Algae points26
67Total teleop94
Reef
4L4#6
6L3#6
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +6
4Cage & park10
4Total endgame10
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +31
2Foul points0
85Total score116

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.91.7
55.453.7
Auto11.9
Teleop40.0
End9.0
red by 24.2
36.73.9
29.032.9
Auto2.7
Teleop31.1
End2.8
Second
22.71.7
22.120.5
Auto5.5
Teleop16.6
End0.6
blue by 8.6
288
#30
31.33.9
22.126.0
Auto5.0
Teleop22.4
End4.0
Third
9208
#25
21.42.4
19.617.1
Auto5.4
Teleop11.7
End4.3
red by 6.4
5702
#32
15.02.7
13.215.9
Auto4.5
Teleop8.6
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned56%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
53%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsMissed