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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11211880100140160159144

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+11Teleop
+1Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave0
5Coral scored#6
23Coral points32
29Total auto32
TeleoperatedRed +14
22Coral scored#13
80Coral points48
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#8
12Processor points18
20Net points32
32Algae points50
112Total teleop98
Reef
12L4#8
9L3#4
3L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
14Foul points0
159Total score144

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.82.2
28.130.4
Auto6.4
Teleop23.4
End2.1
blue by 5.5
37.41.7
36.538.2
Auto10.9
Teleop18.1
End8.3
Second
7174
#23
27.32.5
25.127.6
Auto8.9
Teleop16.5
End1.9
red by 2.1
9566
#26
25.21.7
24.426.1
Auto5.3
Teleop18.6
End1.3
Third
8427
#22
24.62.5
22.124.6
Auto4.0
Teleop19.1
End1.5
red by 1.9
22.71.7
20.922.6
Auto5.5
Teleop16.6
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
66%Auto oddsMissed93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
20%Barge oddsMissed27%Barge oddsEarned