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Red205
341465.1
332242.8
2759.9
Blue168
30265.8
481027.8
3366.8
56%Model gave it44%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions179171100150200250300205168

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+27Teleop
+37Endgame
+37Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave9
6Coral scored#6
31Coral points31
37Total auto40
TeleoperatedRed +30
23Coral scored#23
84Coral points84
5Processor algae#2
7Net algae#4
30Processor points12
28Net points16
58Algae points28
142Total teleop112
Reef
13L4#11
5L3#9
5L2#4
6L1 · trough#5
41Game pieces#35
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +37
0Foul points0
205Total score168

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.10.9
64.265.1
Auto14.0
Teleop45.6
End5.5
blue by 1.7
33
#5
66.80.2
66.666.8
Auto15.6
Teleop43.2
End8.0
Second
27
#9
59.90.9
59.159.9
Auto12.1
Teleop38.9
End9.0
blue by 5.8
302
#1
65.80.2
65.665.8
Auto19.8
Teleop39.7
End6.3
Third
3322
#22
42.80.9
42.042.8
Auto10.3
Teleop24.2
End8.3
red by 15.1
4810
#24
27.80.2
27.627.8
Auto6.8
Teleop20.5
End0.5