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Red96
925518.2
481027.8
30265.8
Blue109
233760.5
283427.2
75988.6
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1311309010011012014015016096109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+15
Endgame+19
Fouls+13
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave9
6Coral scored#4
31Coral points21
34Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +19
12Coral scored#13
44Coral points45
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#4
6Processor points12
4Net points16
10Algae points28
54Total teleop73
Reef
7L4#6
5L3#4
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +13
6Foul points0
96Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
302
#1
65.82.6
64.161.5
Auto19.8
Teleop39.7
End6.3
red by 5.3
2337
#15
60.51.1
77.176.0
Auto15.3
Teleop39.2
End6.0
Second
4810
#24
27.82.6
31.729.1
Auto6.8
Teleop20.5
End0.5
red by 0.6
2834
#20
27.21.1
32.531.4
Auto5.4
Teleop16.1
End5.7
Third
9255
#25
18.22.6
22.519.8
Auto4.2
Teleop12.7
End1.3
red by 9.6
8.61.1
4.13.0
Auto3.0
Teleop4.0
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsMissed52%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
58%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
25%Barge oddsMissed44%Barge oddsMissed