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Red138
22654.2
353847.1
353954.0
Blue183
30265.8
481027.8
3366.8
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions170172100150200250138183

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
Teleop+43
Endgame+45
Fouls+45
AutonomousBlue +13
6Leave3
5Coral scored#8
24Coral points40
30Total auto43
TeleoperatedBlue +30
16Coral scored#24
56Coral points86
3Processor algae#3
5Net algae#5
18Processor points18
20Net points20
38Algae points38
94Total teleop124
Reef
8L4#9
5L3#13
5L2#7
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#40
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +45
0Foul points0
138Total score183

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
226
#6
54.20.4
54.654.2
Auto14.0
Teleop33.3
End6.9
blue by 12.6
33
#5
66.80.6
66.066.5
Auto15.6
Teleop43.2
End8.0
Second
54.00.4
54.454.0
Auto13.2
Teleop31.8
End9.0
blue by 11.8
302
#1
65.80.6
65.065.5
Auto19.8
Teleop39.7
End6.3
Third
3538
#18
47.10.4
47.647.1
Auto14.4
Teleop33.3
End-0.6
red by 19.4
4810
#24
27.80.6
27.027.5
Auto6.8
Teleop20.5
End0.5